Adapt Faster!

2009-06-24T11:29:00.000-07:00

Hear No Evil, Do No Evil - The Next Antibiotic

Bonnie Bassler and her team at Princeton explore how bacteria talk to produce complex behaviors in a phenomena known as quorum sensing. Instead of trying to kill bad bacteria with antibiotics, which has the inadvertent consequence of selecting mutant survivors, Dr. Bassler suggests that by just preventing bacteria from communicating, we can stop virulent bacteria in its tracks. Watch the video of her presentation from TED:

2009-02-20T13:33:00.000-08:00

The Biology of an Economic Crisis

The science of complex adaptive systems might be getting a new face lift during the current financial crisis. Our financial systems have certainly taken on a more "organic" look: a seemingly living breathing network of networks. I'm hoping that all those folks rushing in to create "new policy" can get there heads around "systems think" before they unleash all kinds of "unintended consequences" on their investors.

Back in November Legg Mason Strategist and Santa Fe Institute (SFI) trustee Michael Mauboussin interviewed Paleontologist Doug Irwin to get his perspective on the crisis. There are some fascinating parallels between biological and economic system level crisis. I was stuck by Irwin's observation a species may survive a crisis only to fall victim in the aftermath, incaple of adapting to the new reality. Read the entire interview here.

While the government is running around plugging holes, it makes me wonder if the shift we are going through isn't more profound than a "recession". Whole business models are imploding, hopeful to be replace by something more resilient (Hello... Schumpeter?)

Seed Magazine, my new favorite rag, has several articles in the February issue looking at the crisis with a complex system lens.

Take a look and recommend a biology class to your favorite economist!

2009-02-17T16:05:00.000-08:00

Optimal vs. Robust

One of my favorite arguments to get into is the difference between optimal and robust. If there where a slider bar between the two, where would you put the pointer?

Lots of folks choose "optimal", at which time the question becomes "what's the fitness function" (what you are optimizing for) and for which sort of environment. If your environment shifts, would you still be in an "optimal" position? Or (stealing from evolutionary biology) would you be isolated on a high optima requiring lots of energy to adapt to a new reality? Do you choose to be really, really good at one thing, or able to do lots of different things well enough to adapt quickly to what ever comes your way.

If you are in a dynamically changing environment, complete with lots of different things interacting with lots of other things my bet is on robustness. Take a look at this video and remember: nothing evolves to a simpler state.

2009-02-12T16:42:00.000-08:00

Happy Birthday Chuck!

So glad Alfred Wallace help speed your thinking! Nothing better to have around than a reluctant revolutionary.

And to celebrate your birthday, how about that new Neanderthal Genome . You would have loved the technology to do this study your day, but the research was probably not as enjoyable as a little island time in the Pacific.

I am sad to say that your new Neanderthal Genome study will refute my long held hypothesis that the Neanderthal line actually ended with the death of actor Lee Marvin .

Thanks Chuck, for shaking things up for 200 years!

2009-02-06T11:03:00.000-08:00

Genome! Get Your Genome Here! Only $5,000!

The price of your entire Genome is now about the same as a very nice mountain bike! Complete Genomics is advertising their ability to sequence your A's, T's, C's and G's.

If that's too pricey for you, other companies like Navigenics and 23andMe are offering more focused studies for the price of a premium cyclocross bike and a fine carbon fork respectively.

Your edge? Freak out the doctor next time and say "My recent genome study indicates that I have a single nucleotide polymorphism (or SNP) that favors high V02 Max performance and another that suggests I be alert about developing diabetes. Please write a prescription for a new cyclocross bike that will allow me to train hard, race fast and reduce my risk of type 2 diabetes". Then, show that prescription to your wife who, deeply concerned about your health, will have you contact your favorite framebuilder IMMEDIATELY!

I wonder if there is a SNP for rationalisation?

Eitherway, good article on the emerging field of personal genomics here. With this kind of info, we can all begin driving our own health care bus.

2009-02-04T14:17:00.000-08:00

Singularity University: Future Thinkers, Lousy Football

There's a new school in town, and its all about how the future is increasingly the present. Singularity University went public yesterday. Founded by artificial intelligence pioneer Ray Kurzweil, guided by Peter Diamandis (of X-Prize fame) and backed by Google-Bucks, this could be a fun ride...if you can pony up the $25,000 entry fee.

Focusing on the crossroad where accelerating technologies smash head-on into humanity, SU will offer courses spanning technology nano to bio, intelligence both natural and artificial, and even a few diversions into ethics and entreprenuership (I will admit that the bit on Human Enhancement gave me the heebie-geebies, but I figure they are way behind Hollywood, baseball, and cycling).

Since they have yet to name a mascot, I'm proposing "The Black Holes". That will scare the slime out of the UCSC Banana Slugs!

2006-02-20T17:06:00.000-08:00

The Red Queen and Quickly Evolving Diseases.....

A recent article by BBC underscores the dangers of modern life:

"This accumulation of new pathogens has been going on for millennia - this is how we acquired TB, malaria, smallpox," said Professor Mark Woolhouse, an epidemiologist at the University Of Edinburgh, UK.

"But at the moment, this accumulation does seem to be happening very fast. We're going to have to run as fast as we can to stay in the same place"

"So it seems there is something special about modern times - these are good times for pathogens to be invading the human population."

link

2005-10-25T13:14:00.000-07:00

Killer wasps waste European imports, but get roasted by the locals

The Red Queen Effect boils down to the never ending search for competitive advantage, where in nature or business. An arms

Here's a excellent example of the Red Queen effect in Japan. Killer wasps in Japan prey on European honey bees 1/5th their size, and anniliate a colony of 30,000 bees in a few hours.

But the local honey bee population has evolved very effect weapon to balance the equation - they roast the Killer wasp scout!

Very cool video from National Geographic link

2005-06-25T21:42:00.000-07:00

Red Queen Effect and Terrorism

As quickly as a new defense is found, and new attack evolves - A nice piece from "Schneier on Security"

The Adaptability of Iraqi Insurgents

This Newsweek article on the insurgents in Iraq includes an interesting paragraph on how they adapt to American military defenses.

Counterinsurgency experts are alarmed by how fast the other side's tactics can evolve. A particularly worrisome case is the ongoing arms race over improvised explosive devices. The first IEDs were triggered by wires and batteries; insurgents waited on the roadside and detonated the primitive devices when Americans drove past. After a while, U.S. troops got good at spotting and killing the triggermen when bombs went off. That led the insurgents to replace their wires with radio signals. The Pentagon, at frantic speed and high cost, equipped its forces with jammers to block those signals, accomplishing the task this spring. The insurgents adapted swiftly by sending a continuous radio signal to the IED; when the signal stops or is jammed, the bomb explodes. The solution? Track the signal and make sure it continues. Problem: the signal is encrypted. Now the Americans are grappling with the task of cracking the encryption on the fly and mimicking it—so far, without success. Still, IED casualties have dropped, since U.S. troops can break the signal and trigger the device before a convoy passes. That's the good news. The bad news is what the new triggering system says about the insurgents' technical abilities.

The CIA is worried that Iraq is becoming a far more effective breeding ground for terrorists than Afghanistan ever was, because they get real-world experience with urban terrorist-style combat.

Edited to add: Link fixed.

[via Schneier on Security]

2005-05-22T09:48:00.000-07:00

Overcoming the Competition – Lessons from Four Teenage Immigrants and their Robot “Stinky”

Technology visionaries struggling to get their innovation to market will immediately identify with Joshua Davis’ recent article La Vida Robot in Wired Magazine. It is a classic story of hard scrabble competitors with few resources, going head to head against a field of competitors with, seemingly, all the advantages. Within the story lie a few key lessons that we all can apply to our efforts to bring disruptive technology to market.

Davis chronicles the story of four teens from Phoenix, all undocumented Mexican immigrants, competing against other students in a national underwater robotics contest. Their teachers, assuming that they had little chance of winning, entered them in the college division since there would be “more honor in losing to college kids”.

What follows is a study in persistence, innovation, humility, and making do with scarce resources. In an ending worthy of Hollywood, the Carl Hayden High School team (Lorenzo Santiallan, Cristian Arcega, Luis Aranda and Oscar Vazquez) piloted their robot “Stinky” to victory over their collegiate foes, including MIT. Along the way they won the awards for best design and technical writing (not bad for former ESL students).

In the end there is no mystery in why the Carl Hayden team won – they just plain outperformed, outmaneuvered and out-delivered their competition. As you gear up for your next battle, here are three things that we can learn from this unlikely team of champion roboticists:

Lesson 1. Results First, Looks Second:

Stinky the submarine robot, an ugly conglomeration of PVC pipe painted in ridiculous shades of blue, red and yellow, actually drew laughs from other competitors. They weren’t laughing, however, at the awards ceremony. As ugly Stinky was, its drivers hammered their competition in a variety of tasks. There were no awards for the prettiest sub or the most sophisticated team. Awards were based on RESULTS – the most valuable commodity in the business world.

The people who bet on early market technologies don’t care about looks. They are profoundly interested in your delivering to them capabilities above and beyond those of their rivals. Your intense focus on your customer’s “problem”, and the delivery of results that solve the “problem”, is the essential foundation to your future success. Don’t get caught up in aesthetics, or the elegance of a solution, until you can deliver results that gives your customer an edge.

Lesson 2. Enlist experts that have an emotional stake in your success.

As Phoenix is not generally considered a hotbed of submarine innovation, the team knew they needed expert help. After some research, they found their way to Frank Szwankowski, a leading innovator in submersible robotics.

In fact, the Carl Hayden was the SECOND team to find Szankowski. The first, a collegiate team, called Szankowski, asked him a list of questions, got their answers, and hung up. Led by Oscar, the Carl Hayden team explained their challege, and in effect asked humbly, “what do we need to know?”.

Szawankowski was impressed, and took them on a “deep dive” of ROV technology. Then, he gave them a competitive gem - the specifications of a device that would enable them to win a critical task saying “I think you can beat those guys from MIT.” Now the team not only had killer advice, they had enlisted expert ally who wanted them to win.

The chances of you succeeding in the early market are greater when your expert advisors are actively and emotionally invested in your success. For example, a bevy of technology luminaries have recently announced interest in “solving the health care crisis”. However, talk to any actuary or hospital administrator and they will tell you these folks are hopelessly naïve in their aspirations. They have not effectively engaged experts in the field they want to change.

Also, buck the trend of surrounding yourself with a flashy list of advisors whose main role is to occupy space on your website. If they are not actively engaged in your mission, they are baggage. Buyers are not impressed by your advisor list (see Lesson 1)

Find the experts you need, swallow your ego, and get them on your side. The right ones will want you to win, and will go to lengths to help you.

Lesson 3: “PowerPoint is a distraction. People use it when they don’t know what to say”.

Thus spoke Cristian when grilled by a judge on why they had no PowerPoint presentation during the critical engineering review. Cristian DID know what to say, and could explain concepts as necessary using a flip chart and a marker. He knew his stuff cold, and could look the judges in the eye during the review. The focus was on the solution, the task and the team, not on really cool color schemes, animation and bullet points.

If you are trying to change the world with your technology, you must be able to explain it without PowerPoint. People create believers, PowerPoint does not. Your message has to blast out of your being, and compel your audience to internalize it. You audience needs to believe you can deliver on your vision, and they can only do that by looking into your eyes.

Burt Rutan, the visionary aircraft designer, can describe ON A NAPKIN an aircraft to revolutionize space travel, but the power of his message comes from his conviction in the design. Can you describe your vision on napkin or a flip chart, and then passionately convey its impact to your audience? If not, you need to get cracking.

Do take the time to read the Wired article: there are many more lessons we can learn from Lorenzo, Cristian, Luis and Oscar. Anybody who is introducing something new to the world of technology is an underdog. Like the Carl Hayden team, we can find our competitive advantage in delivering real results, getting great people on our side, and communicating our vision with conviction and passion.

PS. I you are inspired by the efforts of Lorenzo, Cristian, Luis and Oscar, perhaps you’ll consider donating to the scholarship fund set up in their behalf. Let’s get these guys the college education they deserve: La Vida Robot Scholarship Fund.

2005-05-19T17:11:00.000-07:00

Esther Photo Blogs a Friend.

Its got to mean something when you get photo-blogged by Esther Dyson -

Carol McCall, tech/health care visionary....

2005-05-06T11:11:00.000-07:00

Google - parasitic computing at a cpu near you?

A few folks have expressed concern that Google's new Accelerator is really a nifty backdoor way for them to use your CPU as part of their Grid. Read more from Tech Dirt link

2005-04-03T19:41:00.000-07:00

Lets hope the Monsters don't have a cheat for God Mode!

So its been 25+ years since Pong, and they finally figured a way to make players feel the pain! Games That Shoot Back. Get nailed by a virtual bad guy and receive an electric shock, taser like, to the hips! Woo-Who!

2005-03-29T15:47:00.000-08:00

How 4 Vatos from the Desert KICKED MIT's ASS!

If you thought the movie Hoosiers was inspiring, read this story from Wired about 4 undocumented high schoolers from Phoenix hammered the college boys to win an underwater ROV competition. Then cough up the some dough to help get these guys educated. We want them on our team! Andale, amigos!

La Vida Robot How four underdogs from the mean streets of Phoenix took on the best from MIT in the national underwater bot championship. By Joshua Davis from Wired magazine.

[via Wired News]

2005-03-08T20:29:00.000-08:00

Now THIS is Disruptive Technology....Especially for the Chickens!!!!!

Back on the ranch...no really, I used to be a ranch hand a LONG time ago, we had to catch chickens with a wire hook on a stick. It was great fun! But, if you gotta catch a whole shitload of chicken's, whats a ranch hand to do. You MUST see the video......lets just hope the airlines don't get hold of this - The Bright Coop Chicken Catcher!!! (this via BoingBoing)Link Link

2005-03-03T10:49:00.000-08:00

The Spirit of Adventure - 76 million people fly along with Steve Fossett online.

One of my favorite marketing commentators, Hugh McLeod of GapingVoid Link , often talks about the need to connect your offering with people's spirit.

Steve Fossett, Burt Rutan and Richard Branson have succeed! While one man is flying solo aroung the world, millions are following his progress - the human spirit of adventure is alive and well.Link

2005-03-01T11:24:00.000-08:00

Pilot the GlobalFlyer!

As I write this Steve Fossett has just flown the Burt Rutan designed global flyer into Libyan airspace. Why he is flying solo, the rest of us can fly along virtually thanks to the folks at The Heavenly Hanger - download the MS Flight Sim version Link

Otherwise follow the flight live on Virgin Atlantics GlobalFlyer Mission Tracker. These folks are just plain bad ass! Link

2005-02-28T14:49:00.000-08:00

GlobalFlyer prepping for take off!

Just as SpaceShipOne is heading for the Smithsonian, Steve Fossett is getting ready to attempt the first round the world solo flight in GlobalFlyer - another Burt Rutan creation! From ABC Link

2005-02-28T14:46:00.000-08:00

Bring Back the Two Cups and a String

The cell phone hacker is back in action this time going after a member of Limp Bizkit. From Fast Company

Link

2005-02-04T09:48:00.000-08:00

Dominate the Commute!

Flame throwing Hearse.Link

2005-02-03T17:06:00.000-08:00

Are you in your opponent's loop?

I stumbled into an old Fast Company article that I read a few years back about an old jet-jock named John Boyd, and his concept of the OODA Loop - it really strikes at the heart of competition - run a step slow than this Red Queen and end up a smokin' hole! Article by Keith Hammonds - Link

2005-01-29T11:01:00.000-08:00

The Umbrella as Competitive Advantage

Its just not for keeping you dry any more. This from Cory Doctorow of BoingBoing:

HOWTO kick even more ass with an umbrella : Link
[via Boing Boing]

2005-01-18T20:37:00.000-08:00

Dazed and Confused - Tech Marketers Numb Their Targets.

When your failings appear in an AP story, its time to change your ways Link. Of course it adds fuel to the fire for David Weinbergers relentless Cluetrain Express, this time in skit format Link. Send this to your favorite tech marketer, make the world a better place to live.

2005-01-07T10:29:00.000-08:00

Krispy Kreme Stuffs the Channel - Who's going to eat the inventory?

Channel stuffing has never been a good idea. Make the numbers for a quarter, then spend the next few months digging out, just in time to stuff. Buzz and evangelical customers made Krispy Kreme a darling a while back (remember the long drive thru lines?). Where have all the customers gone?!Link

2005-01-07T10:01:00.000-08:00

First Class for $200k...Better get a free massage in the price!

Time to sign up for your ride to space in SpaceShipTwo. It may be a 10 year wait, but that is less than a private trip on the Colorado thru the Grand Canyon. Here's the latest (from the BBC) on the Branson/Rutan plan you put regular folks in space Link.

Meanwhile, if you are ready to sign up, visit the Virgin Galactic website....they are not asking for a deposit YET. Link

2005-01-03T22:19:00.000-08:00

Remember the Cluetrain, or Can I Borrow Your Pen to Open my Bike Lock?

Thesis 1 was "Markets are conversations".

Skip forward to the cover article on this week's fortune re: the importance of NOT ignoring Bloggers Link. Inside is a great example of the impact of blogger wildfire highlighting the weakness of Krytonite's bike lock (forget the key, just use a handy Bic pen). Blog readership of the issue when non-linear in under a week, after which Kryptonite announced a replacement program (subtracting $10m from the bottom line).

Why are the blogs are so important....its people listening to other PEOPLE; NOT PR folks, not marketers, not executives, not sales folks. People.

In case you need a refresher you can visit the Cluetrain Manifesto Link. Funny how some of the key authors of the Manifesto are also leading Bloggers.......

2004-12-31T10:57:00.000-08:00

When Technology Becomes Emotion

The title of today's entry comes from a 1980's marketing campaign from the bicycle component manufacturer Campagnolo. Perhaps I should say THE bicycle component manufacturer. Campy, recently covered in Bicycling Link, is a company that defies business logic....Its products are overpriced, they play in only about a third of the huge biking industry. Yet it maintains a cult like following, replete with laudatory web sites such as Campy Only link, and eBay auctions of old parts scale to the thousands of dollars.

Cult members are not rational people, then again, no specimen of species Homo can claim rationality. I don't care what your ROI calculator says, seldom is any purchase (or for that matter, non-purchase) rational. Whether you are an evolutionist, or and intelligent designer, there lies deep within our being a highly emotional animal that drives our decisions. It doesn't' matter if you are buying a packet blasting box of copper that lies deep within the dark recesses of a network center, or a double non-fat capp with sprinkles....emotions are at work.

Campy riders are NOT RATIONAL. But whether they are riding or just admiring their Campy bike, they are have an emotional experience, a visceral, real, feeling that the product they are regarding is the BEST. In the Bicycling article a rider with 35 Campy dressed bikes says "They don't just make tools for riding, they put art into their work and that's the mojo". Mojo......if your product is going to succeed, you need it.

2004-12-23T11:11:00.000-08:00

Virus Co-evolves with Host Technology - Symbian phone virus.

Just when I was about ready to go to a smart phone vs. carrying two devices. This artcile from RCRNews. Link

2004-12-21T21:39:00.000-08:00

Hey, what is the new VP taking?

In the never ending quest to gain an advantage, the chemicals are beating their way to the cubicle next door.

Link

2004-12-21T21:30:00.000-08:00

Dialing for DNA

Maybe this is how the mutant generation finally comes to life. It looks like your cell phone can alter your DNA, but it "doesn't harm your health". Funny, it doesn't seem like it will make you stronger. Mobile phones 'alter human DNA' A study finds mobile phones damage human DNA in the lab - but does not show they harm health.

I'm betting the telecom companies are praying that there is no damage to our "denial" gene.

2004-12-13T10:06:00.000-08:00

Variants of Chemical Competitive Advantage - What People Will do to Win:

While the US struggles with star athlete's injecting, rubbing in and swallow a witches brew performance enhancing chemicals, it appears some folks in the Ukraine were purposely trying to destroy Viktor Yushchenko's star power....with dioxin! Story from ABC:

Link

2004-12-12T18:39:00.000-08:00

The Red Queen and the GM Cocaine Party

So what do you do if you are a drug lord and the Colombian / US governments are conspiring to destroy your very profitable crop? You hire scientists to help you genetically modify your crop to produce higher drug levels and resistance to herbicides. Link

The Red Queen effect in nature, or business (illicit or otherwise) can result in a metaphorical "arms-race". If the governments gain the advantage, you can bet on the narcos upping the ante on their side.

2004-12-10T10:11:00.000-08:00

Forget the MBA, focus on Biology to get ahead in business.

Over the last few years I've been struck by the pervasiveness of "machine era" thinking in business executives. While some leaders have begun to embrace an "ecosystem" mindset, (see IBM's Sam Palmisano's HBR interview describing IBM as an "organism" Link, a depth of understanding of business ecosystems is still horribly lacking in today's leaders. So today's assignment is for you to put down HBR and download this paper from Theoretical Population Biology [via Complexity digest 2004.49]::

Competitive Coexistence in a Dynamic Landscape This paper investigates the effect of a dynamic landscape on the persistence of many interacting species. We develop a multi-species community model with an evolving landscape in which the creation and destruction of habitat are dynamic and local in space. Species interactions are also local involving hierarchical competitive trade-offs.

Don't get turned off by the science...the modeling techniques the biologists use are available to innovative leaders in the business world.

2004-12-09T09:26:00.000-08:00

Pity the Sketch Artist! Drawing Bad Guys with Evolution.

The Economist Technology Quarterly has a great example of an application of evolutionary computing...actually a technique known as interactive evolution. A crime victim is presented with a series of computer generated faces, choses six that look the most like the perp. The program creates a new generation of faces based on the first set of parents. The process continues until the victim can guide the program to a solid likeness of the bad guy.

Link

2004-11-29T13:50:00.000-08:00

Keeping Spam in the Can: Which is better, attack or shame?

We've all fantazied about this, haven't we? Blasting the spammers that torment with Nigerian fortunes, mortage offers and promises to "enhance" our personal lives. Lyco's European unit is now hoping users will download a screen saver to allow for a DoS attack on spammers. See below:

Lycos Using Distributed Denial Of Service Attacks On Spammers ISPs have a variety of methods that they use to combat spam, but Lycos Europe is going to quite an extreme with their plan to offer up a screen saver to users that constantly pings servers suspected to be used by spammers. In other words, it's a distributed denial of service attack against spammers by Lycos. [via Techdirt]

Lyco's offering brings up some interesting issues: 1) will people who download the screen saver be cooperating with the intention of making the internet a better place to be, or 2) do we just want to make the spammers feel the pain.

In an interesting study a while back, Sam Bowles of the Santa Fe Institute did a study of "Prosocial Emotions". In the paper Bowles explores key emotions that impact cooperation. One bit I like is that guilt may do little to stop anti-social behavior, but SHAME is a powerful social force that can moderate behavior. (www.santafe.edu/research/ publications/wpabstract/200207028)

What if we decided to punish spammers by making them wear where a T-shirt with big block letters that say "SPAMMER" on both sides?. Then make them walk in highly populated places, go to work, pick their kids up from school, go to the grocery store, etc. Instead of ping their server, wouldn't you really rather give them a piece of your mind, especially if they were on a first date?

2004-11-21T16:58:00.000-08:00

Stop the Madness - Free the Habanero!!!

This is a case of science going awry....Genetically tampering with the world's hottest chile to "tame" it. The New York Times > National > Some Like It Hot, but a New Pepper Is Bred for the Rest.
FOR SHAME! The world is filled with bell peppers that bear not a single Scoville Unit of heat, we don't need a "mild habanero". When I eat a habanero, I want the whole chile pepper baby....all 250k SU's of capsaicin coursing my veins, causing me to reel in delightful, fiery agony. We chilero's have earned our heat with extensive training, we don't need watered down versions for lightweights. If you can't stand the heat, stick with the damn peppercini's.

Geez, what a waste of a PhD! Whats next, taking the choc out of chocolate, the espresso out of cappuchino, the foul language out of George Carlin...STOP THE MADNESS! Nature knows best in this case!!

Not all innovations are welcome....some will be heavily resisted...prepare for a fight!

(If you need to ask what a Scoville Unit is DO NOT try to eat a habanero.....better to begin your training with a to visit my source of the Happy Hot Stuff - www.mohotta.com)

2004-11-18T22:02:00.000-08:00

The New World's First Technology

The Clovis point, a finely crafted, very disruptive technology. So critical is it in the pre-history of the Americas, an entire culture was named after it. The new NOVA special "America's Stone Age Explorers (http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/stoneage/fenn.html) discusses this "primitive" technology and raises interesting questions: Did a single group of people with this technology spread quickly across two continents, or was a disruptive, powerful technology adopted across several groups of people? Was the technology so disruptive that it led to the rapid extinction of North American mega fauna? How successful is an innovation if it kills off a critical food source?

2004-11-18T16:22:00.000-08:00

Run Forrest Run

Did the human ability to run long distances give us an advantage on the savannah as we left our primate cousins in the trees as this research suggests MercuryNews.com | 11/18/2004 | What made us human? Running, study says? I tend to agree with Owen Lovejoy's criticism of the theory presented.....endurance running takes a lot out of person. Meanwhile, ask the australopithece's who a big cat's dinner a few million years ago how running help them out.

2004-11-17T16:05:00.000-08:00

3.5 Billion Years of Product Development Experience

There really is nothing new......evolution (except in those states that favor "intelligent design), is natures innovation dynamo. Here's a great read from Wired:

Ideas Stolen Right From Nature Nature is pretty good at solving engineering problems, so designers are increasingly turning to biomimetics to improve their products and ideas. By Rowan Hooper.

2004-11-10T10:13:00.000-08:00

Consumers as Roaches....we've been sprayed by marketers so many times that we are becoming immune.....

Great bit demonstrating the Red Queen effect in action. As we get hammered daily by ads of all sorts, we set up screens. To get around the screens, marketers turn of the volume. Read the article then go to the Axciom site and see if you can figure out who you are.....they have.

Stop Trying to Persuade Us A PBS documentary makes the case that Americans have tuned out marketers pitching everything from cars to candidates. The result: even more crass attempts to get through, and a fragmentation of American society. By Jason Silverman.

[via Wired News]

2004-11-10T09:24:00.000-08:00

No Foolin'??

If you are an executive who likes to paint a rosy picture of your company's future in your 10-K, be forewarned......you may be driving the price of your stock DOWN. Talk about issues in the present tense and be straight forward (hmmm....honesty - interesting concept). Read further in the following....

You Can Fool Some People Sometimes We develop an empirical procedure to qunatify future company performance based on top management promises. We find that the number of future tense sentence occurrences in 10-K reports is significantly negatively correlated with the return as well as with the excess return on the company stock price....

[via Complexity digest 2004.45]

2004-10-06T10:47:00.000-07:00

Witness to Disruption.

A week ago today I stood on the edge of a runway in Mojave, and watched an aircraft straight out of a science fiction novel carry aloft a small rocket. As the aircraft, known as White Knight, circled overhead I told my son he was about to witness history being made (actually, he was just as interested in pounding dirt clouds with the other 5 years olds, but he did pay attention at all the right times). Then, the loudspeakers alerted the gathered pilgrims that separation had occured, and as we looked north east we saw SpaceShipOne blast into space, traveling at 2500 mph and creating and exclamation mark of a contrail that signified a changed world. We listen breathlessly as the commentators wondered about the high spin rate, relaxed a bit when we heard the wings had feathered properly, and rejoiced at the thunder of a double sonic boom.
Flight X1 for the Ansari Xprize was complete!

Since then Burt Rutan and Paul Allen's team has again successfully launched and landed SpaceShipOne, claiming the $10 Million Dollar prize. Perhaps more importantly, they have signed an agreement with Virgin Galactic (thats right, GALACTIC) to build 5 new spacecraft to open up space to the rest of us.

Things are different today than they were a week ago. When asked what it felt like to be a furry little mammal in the end of the age of dinosaurs, Rutan responed "The Boeings and Lockheeds of the world probably thought we were a bunch of homebuilders. I think they're looking at each other right now and thinking, "We're screwed!"". Rutan message was clear....the world is different now, Boeing, Lockheed, NASA, all have a lot more competition and they are agile, hungry and ready. The Red Queen has spoken.

A Giant Leap for Burt Rutan

2004-09-22T09:39:00.000-07:00

Launch Date Set - September 29

Once or twice every generation, there is some sort of disruption that unleashes a great wave of innovation. Something in the “ecosystem” fundamentally changes that allows a sudden burst of creativity and the generation of a new set of competitors racing to dominate a niche. If you want to watch the latest disruption, you need look no farther than www.xprize.com.

The Ansari Xprize Foundation was established with the goal of speeding up low cost space craft development and opening the door for commercial space flight. The inspiration of their $10 million contest is the Orteig Prize, captured by Charles Lindbergh in his historic flight across the Atlantic in 1927.

Government lead space craft design of, which has become bogged down in a government design/approval process that is slow, risk averse and extremely costly. The Ansari folks issued a challenge to private companies to reignite creativity in design, rewarding innovative design and the ability to risk it all to claim a piece of history and first to market status in commercial space flight. Just take a look at the wildly diverse space craft proposed (and in some case being flown) by contestants.

I suspect the $10million prize with not come close to compensating the winners of this space race, but there are a lot of bragging rights at stake. We are at one of those rare transitional times where we can witness history being made. Imagine being at LeBourge field in Paris when Lindbergh landed the Spirit of St. Louis, and having that since that the world had suddenly changed.

On September 29, I’ll be in Mojave, CA to see Burt Rutan’s White Knight carry aloft Space Ship One (www.scaled.com), then launch the smaller craft up to 100km. Rutan and his Scaled Composites team have created two aircraft that send chills down my spine….not only because of its incredible ingenuity, but also because I think this will be the craft that will change the world (and space). Instead of dreaming of space, our kids may be booking orbital flights on Orbitz!

2004-04-23T12:41:00.000-07:00

Baseball and Steroids

Bud Selig thinks "This is about health, fairness, integrity and social responsibility". Channelnewsasia.com

He's dead wrong..this is about competition and winning. Off all the people on the planet, how many actually make it to the major leagues?? A few hundred at any given time? These are folks that through the blessing of genetics, talent, coaching and lots of hard work have made it to the top. At that level of play, there is a very thin level of individual athletic differentiation. So if you are an extraordinary player surrounded by extraordinary players, what do you do to gain a competitive advantage? Answer: anything you can!

Steroids are what make the simply extraordinary talent become extra-extraordinary. They deliver higher salaries, more excitement for the fans, greater returns on player investment, more homers, etc. So am I advocating steroid use??...I'm not real excited about folks pumping strange things into their systems ( I limit my performance enhancers to chocolate and Grey Goose)...but I do understand the temptation.

But what if we could package steroid type results into a consumable that would enhance business competitiveness....would you take it?. What if you are neck and neck with a competitor, would you take some wonder drug, perhaps with consequences down the road, that would help you bury your competition? I mean, that's all we are really looking for in a capitalist system isn't it....an unfair advantage? If you are a Linux provider and could take some easy series of injections to help you kneecap Bill Gates, would you take it...even if it distorted your physical appearance and/or altered your secondary sex characteristics?

Worse yet, imagine the latest IDC report came out showing 15% percent drop in your market share. Imagine your boss suggesting, perhaps in whispers, a regime of performance enhancing (completely natural of course) supplements that will help you regain your share and then some. What if you "stay clean", and that new cat down the hall with the vaguely Homo Erectus brow ridge and terrible mood swings starts bringing in share by the handfuls? Wouldn't you be the least bit tempted? Do you think if Kwame Jackson had them, HE might be building the new Trump Tower in Chicago?

If so, you are wrestlin' the Red Queen......and she is winning!

2004-02-13T17:05:00.000-08:00

The Future of Life.....The Future of Business.

In Edward O. Wilson's latest book "The Future of Life" there is an excellent discussion of bio-diversity and ecosystems. From page 11...."Every species is bound to its community in the unique manner by which it variously consumes, is consumed, competes, and cooperates with other species. It also indirectly affects the community in the way it alters the soil, water, and air. The ecologist sees the whole as a network of energy and material continually flowing into the community from the surrounding physical environment, and back out, and then on round to create the perpetual ecosystem cycles on which our own existence depends".

By changing a few words above, you have an apt description of today's business environment.

From an Ecological point of view, look at what is happening today in the telecom space. Remember when long distance was the profit engine of the Bell's? Now long distance is speeding past commodity to freebie in a blink of an eye. The Nortel's of the world, who built their fortune on Big Iron telecom gear, started getting pushed around by data gear companies like Cisco and Juniper, who are packetizing our voices and blasting them around the internet.

Just as the big companies like ATT join the VoIP bandwagon, here come the Kazaa renegades with their new company Skype (www.skype.com) with FREE long distance over the internet using your PC and very inexpensive microphone. 7 million FREE downloads and counting! ATT......are you listening???

Meanwhile, Vodaphone and Cingular have lined up to devour the carcass of ATT Wireless. Customers are the energy the bidder hopes to metabolize, but unlike those forbidden carbo's, cellular customers are likely to escape to another host if the deal is right (look for the churn rate line item on any wireless/isp's financial sheets).

2004-02-06T00:28:00.000-08:00

The Red Queen Explained

Several readers have commented on my recent change of my Blog title to "Wrestlin' the Red Queen". One colleague thought that I had started an adult entertainment site.

In reality, the title draws in inspiration from the biological concept of co-evolution, or "the biological arms race" between competing species. Back when I worked with Stu Kauffman, he explained it by describing how frog gains an evolutionary advantage by evolving (via selection) a sticker tongue to catch flies. The flies "retailiate" (again via mutation and selection) by becoming more slippery.

Business consultants have picked up on the red queen effect, since its mirrors the very competitive environment all companies face today. In business, innovation and adaptation drives competitive advantage. Companies that can't evolve quickly enough risk extinction, sometimes suddenly (ask the 17,000 Kodak employees who are about to get the pink slip), despite significant leadership positions.

PBS ran a brilliant special on evolution awhile back, a series that I suggest as core materal for any executive or aspiring business leader. The era of an "industrial" business mindset is over; we are now entering the era of biological business. Time to evolve (or as they say in Georgia "change over time).

Here's a link to the PBS evolution site that explains the Red Queen Effect between two species of fish; one that reproduces sexually, and another asexually. Which do you think has an advantage?

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/evolution/library/01/5/l_015_03.html

2004-01-29T11:08:00.000-08:00

Reduce your Transfat intake and......kill an orangutan!!??

Earlier this year I spent time talking to executives of a major consumer goods company regarding how the new transfat labeling laws might impact their business. As you may know, trans-fatty acids, aka partially hydrogenated vegetable oil, are a food stabilizer found in darn near any food product that comes in a bag, box, or wrapper. The rub is that transfats also clog your arteries as fast as the demon cholesterol. After 10 years of lobbying, the government finally acted to make the food companies label the amount of transfats in foods.

So what does this have to do with orangutans? The executives I met with had legitimate concerns about their business. Many major food companies are highly dependent on trans-fats as a product ingredient, and a radical shift away from that ingredient could have a non-trivial impact on the entire US food economy. One alternative to transfats is Palm Oil, a natural product with many of the same properties as trans fats. Palm oil is produced only in tropical countries, many of which need the economic boost. Wild Orangutans are only found on the tropical islands of Sumatra and Borneo.

Fast forward to the Jan. 27 New Scientist article entitled "Ape's Ray of Hope", which discusses some glimmers of optimism for Great Ape conservation, and also the disturbing threats still facing orangutans in Sumatra and Borneo. Habitat loss is the most significant threat to the orangutan, and a key driver in habitat loss is the development of palm oil plantations for economic growth.

Issues like this offer very clear lessons in the risks of “selfish-optimization”, and the challenge of problem solving in a highly interconnected “ecosystem”. In fact, many of the “players” in this problem may not even know (or care) that they are in each others “ecosystem”. The cardiologists might tell you to avoid transfats - the consumer companies might respond by offering a new heart friendly treat, that increases the income opportunity of an impoverished country, that threatens other organisms who have never so much as dunked a cookie in milk.

2004-01-23T10:47:00.000-08:00

Want to innovate? Get out, mingle....its the weak ties that count.
A recent study by Martin Ruef at Stanford Biz school used network science to help understand how entreprenuers come of with innovative ideas. Not surprisingly, part of the answer is exposure to a diverse set of people to spark ideas. Perhaps more surprisingly, the study showed that it was the "weak" network ties that contributed most to innovation, not the core relationships of the entreprenuer. How to find the 'next big thing' - 2004-01-15 - Silicon Valley/San Jose Business Journal

2004-01-21T14:29:00.000-08:00

Evolving the Bad Guy! Here's a link to New Scientist's article that describes our work using evolutionary computing to anticipate hacker behavior.
New Scientist

2004-01-19T10:33:00.000-08:00

The international Irish Music scene - Robustness in Action.

I spend a lot of my time preaching the virtues of robustness in a networked world. With a spade full of recent social network software offerings and publication of network-centric books (Six Degrees by Duncan Watts and Linked by Lazslo Barabasi), we need look no further than the traditional Irish Music movement for a great example of a robust, thriving network.

The Session, a site run by Jeremy Keith, is a hub in the exchange of jigs, reels, hornpipes and other types of tunes. Traditionally, the tunes have spread via sessions with players of a variety of instruments coming together to play. Jeremy also keeps a list of 500 sessions around the world, so any globle-trotting whistle player is never far from a cold pint and friendly group of fellow musicians.

Chiff and Fipple is the critical hub for all things whistle (as in tin, penny or Irish whistle). It is run by the Undisputed King of Internet Whistle Journalism, Dale Wisely. Now you might not think that there is much to say about a shrill, six hole musical instrument with a average retail price of about $7, but C & F is the meeting place for large and thriving group of musicans of all abilities and eccentricities.

Not only to these sites link a self-organized community of musicians, but it transmits the Irish Music cultural DNA via tunes in both print and digital media. Many of the songs go back hundreds of years, but are being played still in bars globally.

And if you find your local Irish Music Session becoming too crowded you have a few options. 1) Just pound down another Guinness and elbow your way in or, 2) fire up your computer and take a whack at Brian Arthur's (Irishman and Complexity pioneer) El Farol problem! ---http://www.santafe.edu/arthur/Papers/El_Farol.html

The Session

2004-01-19T09:55:00.000-08:00

Chiff & Fipple: The Tinwhistle Internet Experience

2004-01-15T16:15:00.000-08:00

About the only thing cooler than a working robot on Mars would be.......a SWARM of Autonomous robots on Mars! Of course that would that away the fun of driving an innerspace remote control car. One day we will have to give up the joystick!
NASA'S M2K4:Roaming the Red Planet

2003-11-10T16:53:00.000-08:00

On Nov. 7th I had the pleasure of attending the Santa Fe Institute's Business Network meeting. There I was transfixed by anthropologist Steve Lansing's discussion of Balinese water temple networks and rice terrace ecology.

Dr. Lansing has spent years understanding the complex relationships between Balinese rice farmers, how they share water, and more importantly the system they have evolved over centuries to maximize rice production and minimize damage by pests and plant disease. He gives us an outstanding example of a naturally evolved, tightly coupled social / ecological system.

He highlights the dangers of "pulling levers" in such a system, as the Government of Indonesia did in the past by disrupting the social system and ecological balance.

Follow the link below to download his agent-based model of the water temple system, papers, and videos of the projects. They are now being used to persuade decision makers in Indonesia to change practices such as additive fertilization (which is impacting coral reefs down stream.

The Bali Model

2003-11-10T16:40:00.000-08:00

Last September, Icosystem's own Eric Bonabeau and several other distinguished speakers (including the Oakland A's Paul DePodesta and Steven Strogratz, leading Chaos scholar) addressed the Thought Leader Forum sponsored by Michael Mouboussin and Credit Suisse First Boston. Michael often inlcudes complexity science in his writtings for the investment community.

Visit CSFB Thought Leadership via the link below. I really enjoy the "Concept Cards" that graphically capture the essence of each speakers talk.

O

Credit Suisse First Boston - Thought Leadership Forum

2003-11-03T16:26:00.000-08:00

Most artists would be concerned if the FBI asked to see their work. But in the weeks following the Sept. 11 attacks, the FBI turned to Mark Lombardi's art for clues. Lombardi's drawings centered on significant world events, and evolved into flowing arcs of interconnected people and events - a sophisticated, detailed and aesthetic network analysis. Visit the associated NPR url to learn more, include dates and sites of the traveling show of Lombardi's art.

NPR : The 'Conspiracy' Art of Mark Lombardi

2003-10-31T13:08:00.000-08:00

Complexity Digest